Tuesday, January 20, 2004

 

The results are in....so I guess that calls for;
 Brahma's instant analysis of the Iowa caucas.

After all the daily and multi-daily announcments of the latest phone poll, it turns out they were perfect. They were actually 100% wrong.... a difficult feat to perform, even if you were trying. So....what did we witness happen in the land of giant cornstalks this week...?

Kerry pulls off a stunning come from behind victory, while the southern son of a millworker comes in a surprisingly strong 2nd place. The already annointed Dean... a disappointing 3rd with just 18%. Gephardt, who was reported to be giving Dean a run for 1st, is effectively gone from the race instead... with a paltry 11%!

Last week I discovered an editing tecnique that I will employ tonight called:
Short story.... In what may prove to be a pivotal moment despite the long road ahead and the reletive obscurity of Iowa and it's caucases (cauci?) , Dean's early popularity with a strong anti-war stance has supplied the impetus for the rest of the field (minus Leiberman) to take a step and a half to the left. After first fumbling about on the war issue and then floating different excuses for his pro-war votes in the Senate, Kerry finally found some that played well with the mid-western voters. His decorated war record gives added weight to his present anti-war words. But we have Howard Dean to thank for forcing the rest to take a clearer anti-war (in Iraq) stance.

Dean can also be credited for the recent statements everybody has made concerening tax realignment. Edwards has picked up on some of that to place in his economic program. So..... what I see is...... The Iowa Democrats have agreed with many of Dean's positions... but don't think he's the one to deliver them! Electability after all, is THE issue... The way everybody ganged up to denigrate Dean was too easy...and opened up wounds that will be hard to ignore in the electability department. When Dean tried to fire back, he was percieved as being too mean and angry. And let's face it....American elections are ALL ABOUT perception.

I'm sure it's of little consequence to Dean, but he most assuredly has had an affect on the eventual platform of the Demos. But he fails to capture the panache neccesary to defeat Bush this year, despite his impresive internet political action team. If history is an example....(what else IS it really?)....one would have to compare his personna with the "Clean for Gene" campaign raised in 1968 for Eugene McCarthy (but with attitude!). Even with the added support of many Robert Kennedy followers after his assasination, the "regular party Democrats" managed to hijack the nomination for the more moderate Hubert Humphrey.

The 1972 race between Nixon and McGovern offered a radical difference. TOO radical for most Americans at that time, which like this... was a time of war.

No....I think America has to hear it from the military now in order to keep feeling secure. Kerry/ Edwards would make a strong ticket I suppose. A couple of guys with good hair..... a prerequiste since the Reagan years....or before actually....JFK.

BUT...on the other hand....America may desire another "grandfather" image to guide us through these tough times. I'm looking forward to seeing General Wes Clark in the New Hampshire debates. I'm still of the mind that he's be the strongest candidate. I read a quote where he said that Bush had no business "prancing around" in a combat flight suit on an aircraft carrier. Only a former General can make that statement with any force. Kerry....maybe too.

In his endorsement of Gen. Clark, Michael Moore makes some excellent points.

"....I came to the conclusion that Clark has the best chance of beating Bush. He is going to inspire the independents and the undecided to come our way. The hard core (like us) already have their minds made up. It's the fence sitters who will decide this election.

The decision in November is going to come down to 15 states and just a few percentage points. So, I had to ask myself -- and I want you to honestly ask yourselves -- who has the BEST chance of winning Florida, West Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio? Because THAT is the only thing that is going to matter in the end. You know the answer -- and it ain't you or me or our good internet doctor.

I am convinced that the surest slam dunk to remove Bush is with a four-star-general-top-of-his-class-at-West-Point-Rhodes-Scholar-Medal-of-Freedom-winning-gun-owner-from-the-South -- who also, by chance, happens to be pro-choice, pro environment, and anti-war. You don't get handed a gift like this very often. I hope the liberal/left is wise enough to accept it.

He is anti-war. Have you heard his latest attacks on Bush over the Iraq War? They are stunning and brilliant. I want to see him on that stage in a debate with Bush -- the General vs. the Deserter! General Clark told me that it's people like him who are truly anti-war because it's people like him who have to die if there is a war. "War must be the absolute last resort," he told me. "Once you've seen young people die, you never want to see that again, and you want to avoid it whenever and wherever possible." I believe him. And my ex-Army relatives believe him, too. It's their votes we need."

~* Just some Thoughts of the Brahma..... with a huge assist from Michael Moore

~Brahma*

posted by ~Brahma 1:51 AM